Paul Tuns – Analysis:
On August 15, Justin Trudeau asked for an election with an eye to regaining a majority. Voters will cast their ballots on Sept. 20, following a five-week campaign.
Over the last 22 months, the Trudeau government has continued to push a socially liberal agenda, just as it had during its first mandate. Over the first four years, Justin Trudeau’s government legalized euthanasia, legalized recreational cannabis, and instituted a feminist foreign policy that included funding abortion abroad with Canadian taxpayer dollars.
Over the course of his minority mandate that just concluded, the Trudeau government vowed to spend billions more in foreign aid on abortion. Meanwhile, the Trudeau government penalized New Brunswick by cutting its Canada Health Transfer because the provincial government refuses to fund abortions at a private abortuary. In its 2021 budget, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said that in the future, the federal government will require provinces to fund all abortions as a condition of receiving Canada Health Transfer payments.
The Trudeau government also passed legislation expanding euthanasia and doctor-assisted suicide beyond the diktat of the Quebec Superior Court’s 2019 decision striking down the part of the law that required that death be imminent and eliminated safeguards including the 10-day waiting period between a euthanasia request and the procedure being carried out. In the rush to get their euthanasia expansion bill passed by the court-sanctioned deadline, the federal government capitulated to the independent senators Justin Trudeau appointed and promised to allow patients who suffer from mental illness to access assisted death.
The Trudeau government introduced a bill that would criminalize psychiatric and spiritual counselling for unwanted same-sex attraction and gender confusion, and punish parents who facilitated such interventions. Bill C-6 passed in the House of Commons in a 263-63 vote with independent MP Derek Sloan joining a majority of the Conservative caucus in opposing the bill. Conservative leader Erin O’Toole supported C-6. The Senate was debating the bill when Parliament rose for the summer. The bill died on the Order Paper when the Election Writ was drawn, but Trudeau will likely introduce the bill again if re-elected.
The only pro-life bill considered during the 43rd Parliament, was Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall’s C-233, The Sex Selective Abortion Act, which would have barred abortions for sex-selective purposes. C-233 was defeated 248-82, with most of the Conservative caucus voting for it along with Sloan. O’Toole and Health Critic Michelle Rempel Garner joined the Liberal, NDP, Bloc Quebecois, and Green caucuses in opposing it. Status of Women Minister Maryam Monsef said in a press conference, C-233 was a “dangerous bill” complaining that “this is in fact the seventh time since 2007 that a Conservative Member of Parliament has worked hard to limit women’s choices.” Prime Minister Trudeau and numerous other cabinet ministers tweeted their opposition to the bill. Trudeau often repeats the line that men should not tell women what they can do with their bodies.
On social issues, there is a progressive majority already in place. The Liberals are typically joined by the NDP, Bloc Quebecois, and Green Party caucuses, and a significant minority of Conservative MPs. But Trudeau would like to govern with a majority and the Liberals only need to gain 15 seats to win one. In 2019, the Liberals won 157 seats with 33.1 per cent of the vote.
In 2019, the Conservatives won the popular vote (34.3 per cent) and increased their seat total from 95 to 121. But considering the Liberals were scandal-ridden, many Conservatives thought they should have done better and after Peter MacKay famously said that Andrew Scheer’s regnant erstwhile social conservatism was an “albatross around the neck” of the party, there was a Tory leadership race. MacKay finished second, after down-ballot support for pro-life candidates Leslyn Lewis and Derek Sloan broke for Erin O’Toole in the August 2020 vote. O’Toole has spent much of the past year distancing himself from any hint of social conservatism.
O’Toole has repeatedly declared himself “pro-choice,” voted for LGBTQ+ rights, and declared that one of his top priorities if he is elected prime minister is eliminating the ban on homosexuals donating blood. O’Toole also kicked prominent social conservative Derek Sloan out of caucus in January and his minions at party headquarters have disqualified several social conservatives seeking to become candidates for the party.
That has not stopped Team Trudeau from using abortion as a wedge issue. Toronto Sun columnist Brian Lilley noted in July that Trudeau was in New Brunswick taking up the mantle of abortion once again: “It’s true, the Liberals raise the issue of abortion more than the most fervent pro-lifers. They are obsessed with the issue as long as it gets them votes.”
It is not obvious that it does gain Trudeau votes. A Refinery29 survey of 1,022 Canadian women before the October 2019 election found that just five per cent of female voters listed women’s issues — including “reproductive rights” — as the most “pressing” issue in the election. That does not mean that a leader’s, party’s, or candidate’s views on abortion do not influence voting patterns, but it probably does not matter as much as the media suggest it does. That said, it would be surprising if the Trudeau Liberals and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP do not attack the Conservatives over the fact that they have pro-life and other socially conservative candidates running under their banner.
Some party insiders worry that social conservatives will abandon the party because they are fed up with O’Toole. With various right-of-centre options including the Christian Heritage Party led by Rod Taylor, the People’s Party of Canada led by former Conservative MP Maxime Bernier, the western separatist Maverick Party led by former Conservative MP Jay Hill, and a new, yet-unnamed party led by Sloan, there are plenty of opportunities for those fed up with the Tories to find a more representative candidate in the general election. (Elections Canada seemed to be dragging its feet approving Sloan’s party, and may not get around to doing so before election day.) The People’s Party received 1.62 per cent of the vote with candidates running in almost every riding in 2019 and the CHP won 0.1 per cent of the vote nationwide with 51 candidates. Many pundits and strategists expect the combined support of these so-called right-wing fringe parties to grow; Conservative strategists are counting on voters tempted to vote for other right-leaning parties to ultimately vote for Conservative to stop Justin Trudeau from winning a majority.
Campaign Life Coalition continues to encourage supporters to vote pro-life regardless of party, noting that Conservative MPs who have stellar pro-life and pro-family voting records deserve the support of the pro-life community. But where there is not a pro-life MP, CLC reminds pro-lifers that the only wasted vote is one for someone who does not share their values. CLC national president Jeff Gunnarson told The Interim that people should eschew voting strategically “and trust in the Lord,” and find the “candidates who best represent their moral views.” Gunnarson explains, “We will never get pro-life laws passed if we do not elect pro-life MPs.”
More than 20 MPs are not running for re-election, including 12 Liberals and six Conservatives. Of the six Conservatives, three of them are rated pro-life by Campaign Life Coalition: Phil McColeman (Brant), David Sweet (Flamborough-Glanbrook), and Tom Lukiwski (Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan). Lukiwski was first elected in 2004, Sweet in 2006, and McColeman in 2008.
Notable Liberal MPs not running for re-election are former cabinet ministers Catherine McKenna (Ottawa Centre) and Navdeep Bains (Mississauga-Malton), former Speaker of the House Geoff Regan (Halifax West) and long-time MP Wayne Easter (Malpeque), first elected in 1993. Independent MP Jody Wilson-Raybould (Vancouver-Granville), Trudeau’s former justice minister, has also announced she would not run for re-election.
Brad Trost, who lost his nomination battle in 2019, attempted to make a political comeback in Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan. The Conservative Party’s nomination committee disqualified Trost, but the party’s National Council reinstated him. However, he lost the nomination to Moose Jaw mayor Fraser Tolmie after a hastily called vote that was conducted completely online.
Pierre Lemieux, another former pro-life MP, sought to run again in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, which he represented from 2006 to 2015 before losing to Liberal Francis Drouin. He sought to retake the riding in 2019, but lost. Conservative Party rules bar candidates who have lost twice to become candidates, although a waiver can be granted by the president of National Council if approved by the National Candidate Selection Committee. He asked for a waiver in January, and was informed it was denied on August 6. (At least one candidate who lost twice before, former Richmond Hill MP Costas Menegakis, was granted a waiver.)
Leslyn Lewis, who finished a strong third as a pro-life Conservative leadership contender last year, is running for the party in the southwestern Ontario riding of Haldimand-Norfolk, a relatively safe Conservative riding formerly represented by retiring MP Diane Finley. Finley was not considered pro-life by CLC, so this would be a pro-life pickup.
Other notable new candidates running federally include Conservative Melissa Lantsman (Thornhill), a political strategist and lesbian activist; Liberal Yasir Naqvi (Ottawa Centre), who as Ontario Attorney General inaugurated the province’s anti-free speech bubble zones; and NDP Norm Di Pasquale (Spadina-Fort York), who as a Toronto Catholic District School Board trustee has pushed the LGBQT+ agenda on Catholic schools.
Campaign Life Coalition is limited by Election Canada’s third-party advertising rules which prevent it from communicating with the public about candidates and issues. To access their dedicated election website, voteprolife.ca, supporters will have to pay a modest fee to become a subscriber. Accessing the site will allow users to check out CLC’s analysis of the leader, party platform, and local candidate positions on life and family issues.
