Politico has a story about the “inevitability” of same-sex marriage in America and that belief by some supporters of SSM that eventually it would be accepted and legal across the country is being questioned. In April, Nate Silver said that by 2016, most states will have legalized gay marriage and the last holdout (Mississippi) coming around by 2024. Those are very specific predictions based a peculiar belief in the statistical model Silver uses and the assumptions upon which those models are based.

The thinking among gay rights supporters is that those who support the traditional definition of marriage are simply on the wrong side of history. The Politico story contradicts its own headline, though, when author Ben Smith points to gay-tolerant attitudes of younger voters and comments by gay leaders such as Human Rights Campaign president Joe Solmonese who say the 2010s will be the “marriage decade’ after (he predicts) California, New York and other northeastern states approve SSM. Read the actual story and the subtext is that SSM is inevitable,  just not now.

The fact is it is too early to tell whether the march toward legalization of same-sex ‘marriage’ is moving forward, stalled or reversed. There are a couple of factors that will affect this debate over the next few years, including future court decisions and immigrant and minority voting. Blacks and Hispanics do not like same-sex ‘marriage’ and the fallout resulting from the division on the left between minorities on the one hand and progressive elites on the other will be an interesting one to watch. I will be curious to see how the political coalitions of the recent past work together (or not) in the context of SSM and the possibility of a political realignment due to decreased political affiliations among some minority groups.

This whole discussion of inevitability reminds me of a Chesterton quote that there is no such thing as a lost cause because there is no such thing as a won cause (except for the one won on a hill on Cavalry two millennia ago). Political causes are battled over and temporarily won or lost. The lesson is that those concerned about the changing definition of marriage must fight a political and cultural battle to resist the battle being waged by the other side. There will be no reason for either side to let up even after ostensible victories and defeats. The only thing that is inevitable is that the fight will be long.